Entries by Drew Millard

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November 2018

The global economy has delivered above-trend growth and a modest rise in inflation this year. This trend is expected to end, as increasing dependence on U.S. demand should not be capable of carrying the rest of the world. We expect that the combination of the escalating trade dispute with China and monetary tightening by the […]

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October 2018

In October, we evolved our twelve-month forward-looking outlook to reflect a six-month period of Growth, followed by a six-month period of Inflation. The global economy remains on track for another year of solid growth, likely to be just under 4%, as we enter the fourth quarter of 2018. However, domestic factors are causing the overall […]

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Q4 2018 Outlook

Section 1. Q4 2018 Outlook   Economies Diverge and Divisive Politics Dominate A year ago, global economies were enjoying synchronized growth. Growth increased in every large economy during 2017, except Britain, and even in most emerging economies. Global trade was surging with the U.S. booming and China’s deflation under control. While President Trump’s tax cuts […]

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September 2018

In September, we maintained our outlook to reflect the impact of escalating global trade wars. We are currently factoring in a six-month period of Stagnation followed by six months of Inflation. During 2018, global growth appears to have peaked at 3.8% after picking up steam through the second half of last year1. We expect further […]

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August 2018

In August, we maintained our outlook to reflect the impact of the escalating global trade wars.  We are currently factoring in a six-month period of Stagnation followed by six months of Inflation. While the baseline forecast for the global economy continues for 2018 and 2019, the potential for disappointment remains. Tariffs generate what economists call […]

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July 2018

In July, we updated our outlook to reflect the impact of the escalating global trade wars. We are now factoring in a six-month period of Stagnation followed by six months of Inflation. While the baseline forecast for the global economy continues for 2018 and 2019, the potential for disappointments has increased. The WTO issued a […]